This excellent infographic on global megacities from Visual Capitalist caught my eye because of what we might be able to extrapolate about energy/transport issues. The infographic notes that while in 1950 30% of the global population lived in cities, by 2050 70% will live in urban areas, many of which will be megacities. I think this dynamic has the potential to significantly impact future fuel demand because, as I’ve pointed out before, cities are already struggling (and will continue to) with traffic and transport-related air pollution.
This is an underlying force propelling transport policy solutions such as improved/expanded public transport, zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and outright car bans (or limitations). I believe that’s going to continue. And oddly enough, neither the recent BP and ExxonMobil energy outlook appear to account for these potential impacts. The focus from some other stakeholders has been on the disruptive force ZEVs (particularly battery EVs (BEVs)) present to future oil demand. But I wonder if the real attention should be paid to the potential power shift from national/provincial governments to the cities — especially as it pertains to future energy/transport policies.
It will be cities, for example, that institute car bans, expand and improve infrastructure for both public transport and ZEVs, autonomous, shared driving, and redesigning cities to promote walking and cycling. Some advocates are encouraging and planning for this power shift, and recently, a Global Parliament of Mayors was created to “leverage the collective political power of cities.” It may be cities that end up carrying much of the water to actually implement the Paris Agreement. And consider: McKinsey has estimated that the 600 top urban centers contribute whopping 60% to the world’s total GDP today.
The infographic notes seven types of global cities, with these classifications and data coming from the Brookings Institute.
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