Before April of last year, natural gas had never topped coal power. But 2015 closed out with a string of months where gas took the top slot, though the year ended with coal still generating slightly more energy. All-in-all, gas actually exceeded coal’s share in seven months last year, and EIA now indicates that trend is likely to grow.

“The recent decline in the generation share of coal, and the concurrent rise in the share of natural gas, was mainly a market-driven response to lower natural gas prices,” EIA said. Stricter environmental rules, including the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard and the planned Clean Power Plan, have also played a role.

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Natural gas-fired power generation is expected to surpass coal in 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA on Tuesday released its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects natural gas will fuel 33.4 percent of the country’s power generation in 2016 compared to coal’s 32 percent.

The March forecast marks the first time the EIA has projected natural gas-fired generation to surpass coal on an annual average basis.

The EIA expects coal production to total about 784 million short tons (st) this year, 12.4 percent less than 2015 and a 21.4-percent drop from 2014.

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Nearly 18 GW of electric generating capacity was retired in 2015, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and more than 80 percent of that was coal-fired.

About 30 percent of those coal retirements happened in April after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule went into effect.

According to the EIA, some plants applied for and received one-year extensions and will retire this April.  Several plants received additional extensions beyond April 2016 based on their roles in grid reliability.

According to the EIA, much of the country’s existing coal capacity was built between 1950 and 1990.  Coal units that were shuttered in 2015 were primarily built between 1950 and 1970.  The average age of those units was 54 years.  The average age of the country’s remaining coal-fired plants is 38 years.

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