China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, and is building the most power plants of any country in the world, making its decarbonization paramount to preventing dangerous climate change. But the costs of wind, solar, and energy storage have fallen so fast that building clean power is now cheaper than building fossil fuels – a lot cheaper.
New research shows plummeting clean energy prices mean China could reliably run its grids on at least 62% non-fossil electricity generation by 2030, while cutting costs 11% compared to a business-as-usual approach. Once again, it’s cheaper to save the climate than destroy it.
While fast-falling clean energy prices make China’s clean energy transition possible, only smart policy can achieve a low-carbon electricity future. Fortunately, this clean energy transition would also spur long-term sustainable economic growth while cleaning the country’s air.
Short-term decisions, long-term impact
COVID-19 sparked a global emissions drop—China’s tumbled by an estimated 25% in the first quarter of 2020. But without decisive action to transform the country’s energy system, the pandemic could be a blip in China’s long-term rising emissions trend. May data showed a rapid rebound driven by coal power and cement production, with emissions up 4% to 5% year over year.
The economic recovery choices China makes today could either improve or worsen its air and water quality. While the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently affirmed the country’s climate commitment, which promises to peak emissions and reach 20% non-fossil electricity generation by 2030, its coronavirus recovery effort could lean heavily on polluting sources as China approved more coal permits in March 2020 than all of last year.
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